Analysis
The Ballon d'Or race is opening up, and a midfielder is the story
Three forwards dominate the betting, but the underlying numbers favour the player doing the linking.
The Ballon d'Or race has been shaped by three forwards over the last two cycles, and the betting markets this year are no different. The underlying numbers, however, are starting to favour the player doing the linking. The midfield minutes are up, the chance-creation rate is the highest of the cycle, and the title-deciding matches have run through her rather than around her.
The argument is not that the forwards are having a poor season. They are scoring at historic rates and the goals-per-90 numbers are the highest of the cycle. The argument is that the underlying numbers — expected threat, second-assist rate, pressure resistance — point to a midfielder who has been the offensive fulcrum of the title-winning side.
The case for the midfielder
- The chance-creation rate is the highest of the cycle, and the second-assist rate is up 18% on the previous season.
- The title-deciding matches have run through her, with the goals-per-90 dropping when she has been substituted early.
- The expected-threat numbers place her ahead of the leading forwards when the minutes load is normalised.
The case against
- The Ballon d'Or voting historically favours the goal-scorer, and the cycle's leading goal-scorer is a forward who has been the offensive focal point of the title-winning side.
- The midfield case requires the voters to engage with the underlying numbers, which has historically been a stretch.
- The midfielder's international minutes are lower than the leading forwards, which has been a tie-breaker in previous cycles.
What we're watching
- The Champions League quarter-final draw and the path to the final.
- The international window in April, where the minutes load could shift the case.
- The final round of league matches, where the chance-creation numbers will lock in.