Fantasy read
Role security, and why it matters
Why minutes-per-match beats headline points-per-game when building a long contest run.
What role security is
Role security is the probability that a player will play the role the manager expects, in the position the manager expects, for the minutes the manager expects. It is not the same as selection security, which is the probability the player will be named in the XI.
Why it matters more than points-per-game
A player with a high points-per-game average but a low role-security score is a player whose points are conditional. The conditionality is the risk: the points are real, but the variance around the expectation is wide. A player with a moderate points-per-game average but a high role-security score is a player whose points are reliable. The reliability is the edge.
How to read it
- Look at the minutes-per-match, not the points-per-game.
- Look at the role within the system, with the manager's usage the cleanest read.
- Look at the recent form, with the surface-by-surface split the cleanest read on form.